Was reading some older posts by Simon Wardley and came across this one entiltled- "Why I believe AAPL will crumble ... " which it turns out I commented on back in October. John Gruber calls this sort of thing Claim Chowder...and hangs on to them for future reference.
Here is my commentary-
Hmmm...interesting essay and comments. I feel that what makes the decline of Apple unlikely in the near future is the way that their strategy has diverged from that of other large tech and software companies.
The return of Apple to prominence wasn't a result of competing with Microsoft on marketable software. Apple created a few completely separate platforms, namely, the Mac, iPod and now the iPhone/iPad. The smaller platforms serve the company well as they don't just drive users to use Apple laptop and desktop computers, they are actually a MORE profitable business in many ways and have managed to dominate the sphere that they occupy.
In essence, what they've done is to create and then dominate other parts of the tech/ consumer electronics world while becoming more profitable than any of the "computer companies". It doesn't hurt that the idevices have also become a gateway product for the Mac.
I think that it is also wise to consider that the area that the iPhone and iPad created and continue to dominate are becoming real alternatives to the traditional computer market...and that there are NO viable financial competitors in this space. Also, important to remember is that none of the tablets or Android phones make any money worth even mentioning next to the iPhone/ iPad.
The play isn't to compete with PCs or other similar devices, it is to define the future of portable computing and be the most profitable, most holistic player in this space.
Kinda funny quoting myself.